Wisconsin vs Michigan State 10/2/2010

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Wisconsin winning 49% of simulations, and Michigan State 51% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Wisconsin commits fewer turnovers in 40% of simulations and they go on to win 62% when they take care of the ball. Michigan State wins 66% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. John Clay is averaging 107 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (34% chance) then he helps his team win 61%. Edwin Baker is averaging 62 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (26% chance) then he helps his team win 68%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is MICHST +2 --- Over/Under line is 52

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